Fertility crisis leads to a rapid decline in Thailand's population
Thailand's population could halve in the next 60 years due to the ongoing fertility crisis. Experts are sounding the alarm and calling on the government to take urgent measures to encourage births.
Causes and extent of the demographic crisis
In 1993, Thailand recorded a sharp drop in the birth rate for the first time. While about 1 million children were born each year between 1963 and 1983, only 485,000 will be born in 2021. This is lower than the mortality rate, which was 550,000.
The total fertility rate (the number of children per woman per lifetime) has fallen from 2.1 in 1993 to 1.16 at present. The exception is Yala province in the south of the country, where the majority of the population is Muslim, where the rate is 2.27.
By 2083, Thailand's population is projected to fall to 33 million people, or half of the current 66 million. The number of people of working age will fall from 46 million to 14 million, infants - from 10 million to 1 million, and senior citizens will increase from 8 million to 18 million, or half of the population.
Causes of the demographic crisis
Among the main reasons for the decline in the birth rate, experts name:
- Economic difficulties, which do not allow to start large families
- Changing social attitudes, increasing number of single and childless people
- Increase in the level of women's education, their employment and career aspirations
- Environmental problems affecting reproductive health
- Modern urban lifestyle and its values
According to the Thai Ministry of Health, medical reasons are responsible for only 10% of the decline in fertility.
Consequences of the demographic crisis
Declining births and an "aging" population lead to a number of serious economic and social consequences:
- Labor shortages and slower economic growth
- Budget deficit due to increased social costs for the elderly
- Overloading of the health care system
- Decrease in the innovative potential of society
- Weakening of the country's defense capability
- Growing intergenerational tensions
As early as 2023, the number of elderly Thais will exceed the number of working-age youth. This alarming signal is forcing the authorities to look for ways to overcome the demographic crisis.
Measures to stimulate the birth rate
To stop the population decline, the Thai government is considering the following measures:
- Direct payments to families at the birth of children
- Preferential loans for young families to buy homes
- Expanding the network of affordable kindergartens
- Increased parental leave and flexible working hours for mothers
- Free IVF programs for childless couples
- Promotion of family values and large families
- Improving the quality of school education
- Creation of favorable conditions for immigration of qualified personnel
However, many experts believe that the effect of such measures will be short-term. Fundamental socio-economic reforms are needed if Thailand is to overcome the demographic crisis. The government should prioritize these reforms as soon as possible.
Author of the article: Ekaterina Antonova
